Hurricane : Tropical Storm Dorian 2019 on path for Caribbean by Tuesday

Tropical Storm Dorian continued on a path westward on Sunday but has gotten no stronger in the process.

The National Hurricane Center thinks it will intensify, however, and it could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Caribbean in a few days.

As of the last advisory, at 10 a.m. CDT Sunday, Tropical Storm Dorian was located about 465 miles east-southeast of Barbados and was moving west at 14 mph.

Dorian had winds of 40 mph Sunday morning, making it a minimal tropical storm. The hurricane center said some strengthening is expected over the next two days, “and Dorian could be near hurricane strength over the eastern Caribbean Sea.”

Hurricane force winds begin at 74 mph.

However, will Dorian actually become a hurricane?

The answer was unclear on Sunday morning. Conditions will be mostly favorable for slow strengthening over the next few days.

However, some of the models point to increasing wind shear after that, which could keep Dorian in check.

Dorian is a small storm, which makes intensity forecasts more challenging. The hurricane center noted that, saying “It should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within and its small size.”

A tropical storm warning has been issued for Barbados, and tropical storm watches have gone up for St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The hurricane center said more watches and warnings could be coming today for parts of the Leeward and Windward Islands.

The hurricane center also cautioned those in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola to keep a close eye on Dorian.

Tropical storm conditions will be possible in Barbados by late Monday.

Dorian could bring two to four inches of rain to parts of the Lesser Antilles, along with rough seas and rip currents.

As for Dorian’s path, it’s too early to speculate on whether the storm will affect the United States.

The hurricane center again shifted the official forecast track southward a bit and sped up the time timeline on Sunday morning, in line with a shift from most of the major forecast models. Forecasters noted that other track shifts may be coming.

The official five-day track forecast goes as far as Hispaniola, which Dorian could reach by Friday. The track keeps the center of the storm just to the south of Puerto Rico.

The hurricane center said it is too soon to know exactly what the impacts will be for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola, but those there should keep a close eye on the storm.

Forecasters noted in the latest discussion that there are a range of possibilities regarding Dorian’s future. The storm could track north of Hispaniola and hold onto to its intensity, but it could also make a direct hit on the island and then dissipate completely.

The hurricane center was also watching the waters off the Southeast U.S. coast on Sunday.

A disturbance there has been percolating for days and still could become a tropical depression soon.

As of Sunday morning the trough of low pressure stretched from the Florida peninsula and northeastward over the western Atlantic.

The hurricane center thinks a tropical or subtropical depression could form in the next few days, but the system will be well offshore of the U.S. and moving farther away.

Forecasters said an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is still scheduled to take a closer look at the system this afternoon -- if necessary.